Separate facts, predictions and interpretations · S10.4

Distinguish a forecast from a fact

You are treating a feared future outcome as settled.

Everyday practice

Try these steps

1. Write the prediction and the information it rests on.
2. Name what remains unknown and one other plausible outcome, without assuming it will occur.
3. Choose a useful preparation or information-gathering step that makes sense across the possibilities.

An example

I predict the interview will go badly, but I do not know the questions. I can prepare examples of my work.

Reflect

What is known now, and what is still a forecast?

Next time

Update the prediction when evidence arrives rather than forcing an optimistic version.